2009年美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲2

Current Challenges and Risks

目前的挑战和风险

The world economy is going through the most challenging economic and financial stress in generations.

世界经济正在经历多年来挑战性的经济和财政压力。

The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy will shrink this year for the first time in more than six decades. The collapse of world trade is likely to be the worst since the end of World War II. The lost output, compared to the world economy's potential growth in a normal year, could be between three and four trillion dollars.

国际货币基金组织预测，今年世界经济将出现60多年来的首次萎缩。世界贸易的衰退很可能是自第二次世界大战结束以来最严重的。与正常年份世界经济的潜在增长率相比，产出损失可达到3至4万亿美元。

In the face of this challenge, China and the United States are working together to help shape a strong global strategy to contain the crisis and to lay the foundation for recovery. And these efforts, the combined effect of forceful policy actions here in China, in the United States, and in other major economies, have helped slow the pace of deterioration in growth, repair the financial system, and improve confidence.

面对这一挑战，中国和美国共同努力，帮助形成一个强有力的全球战略，遏制危机，为经济复苏奠定基础。这些努力，以及中国、美国和其他主要经济体所采取的强有力政策行动的综合效应，已帮助减缓增长的恶化速度，修复金融系统和提升信心。

In fact, what distinguishes the current crisis is not just its global scale and its acute severity, but the size and speed of the global response.

事实上，当前危机与以往的区别，不仅在于其全球规模及严重程度，还在于全球反应的范围和速度。

At the G-20 Leaders meeting in London in April, we agreed on an unprecedented program of coordinated policy actions to support growth, to stabilize and repair the financial system, to restore the flow of credit essential for trade and investment, to mobilize financial resources for emerging market economies through the international financial institutions, and to keep markets open for trade and investment.

在4月份的20国集团领导人伦敦会议上，我们商定了一个前所未有的协调的政策行动计划，以支持经济增长，稳定和修复金融体系，恢复对贸易和投资至关重要的信贷流动，通过国际金融机构来为新兴市场经济体调动财政资源，并保持贸易和投资市场的开放。

That historic accord on a strategy for recovery was made possible in part by the policy actions already begun in China and the United States.

这项针对经济复苏战略的历史性协定之所以达成，部分取决于中国和美国已经出台的政策行动。

China moved quickly as the crisis intensified with a very forceful program of investments and financial measures to strengthen domestic demand.

在危机加剧时，中国迅速出台了强有力的增强国内需求的投资和金融措施计划。

In the United States, in the first weeks of the new Administration, we put in place a comprehensive program of tax incentives and investments – the largest peace time recovery effort since World War II - to help arrest the sharp fall in private demand. Alongside these fiscal measures, we acted to ease the housing crisis. And we have put in place a series of initiatives to bring more capital into the banking system and to restart the credit markets.

在美国，新政府上任的第一周，我们就建立了一个全面的税收优惠和投资计划──第二次世界大战以来和平时期的恢复努力，以帮助遏制私人需求的急剧下降。除了这些财政措施，我们还采取行动减轻住房危机。我们出台了一系列举措，使更多的资金进入银行系统，并重新启动信贷市场。

These actions have been reinforced by similar actions in countries around the world.

这些举措在世界各国采取类似举措之后得到了加强。

In contrast to the global crisis of the 1930s and to the major economic crises of the postwar period, the leaders of the world acted together. They acted quickly. They took steps to provide assistance to the most vulnerable economies, even as they faced exceptional financial needs at home. They worked to keep their markets open, rather than retreating into self-defeating measures of discrimination and protection.

与30年代的全球危机以及战后各个主要经济危机相比，世界各国领导人这次采取了联合行动。他们行动相对迅速。他们采取措施向最脆弱的经济体提供援助，尽管他们自身的国家也面临着特殊的金融需求。他们致力于继续开放市场，而不是退回到自我击败的歧视和保护措施中去。

And they have committed to make sure this program of initiatives is sustained until the foundation for recovery is firmly established, a commitment the IMF will monitor closely, and that we will be able to evaluate together when the G-20 Leaders meet again in the United States this fall.

他们承诺确保这一动议计划维持到复苏基础的牢固确立，而国际货币基金组织将密切监测此承诺，这样我们将能够在20国集团领导人今年秋天在美国再次会晤时一起来评估。

We are starting to see some initial signs of improvement. The global recession seems to be losing force. In the United States, the pace of decline in economic activity has slowed. Households are saving more, but consumer confidence has improved, and spending is starting to recover. House prices are falling at a slower pace and the inventory of unsold homes has come down significantly. Orders for goods and services are somewhat stronger. The pace of deterioration in the labor market has slowed, and new claims for unemployment insurance have started to come down a bit.

我们开始看到一些改善的初步迹象。全球经济衰退似乎失去力量。在美国，经济活动下跌步伐已经放缓。家庭节省更多，但消费者信心有所改善，消费已开始恢复。房屋价格的下降正在放缓，未售出房屋的库存已经大幅下降。商品和服务的订单有所提升。劳动力市场的恶化速度已经放缓，新申请失业保险的人数已开始有所下降。

The financial system is starting to heal. The clarity and disclosure provided by our capital assessment of major U.S. banks has helped improve market confidence in them, making it possible for banks that needed capital to raise it from private investors and to borrow without guarantees. The securities markets, including the asset backed securities markets that essentially stopped functioning late last year, have started to come back. The cost of credit has fallen substantially for businesses and for families as spreads and risk premia have narrowed.

金融体系已开始恢复。我们对美国主要银行的资本评估报告中所提供的澄清和披露信息，帮助提振信心，使需要资本的银行可以向私人投资者融资，借款时无需担保。证券市场，包括去年年底已基本停止运转的资产抵押证券市场已经开始恢复。企业和家庭的信贷成本已大幅度下降，因为利差和风险溢价已经缩小。

These are important signs of stability, and assurance that we will succeed in averting financial collapse and global deflation, but they represent only the first steps in laying the foundation for recovery. The process of repair and adjustment is going to take time.

这些都是重要的稳定迹象，对我们将成功避免金融崩溃和全球性通货紧缩的保证，但它们只是为经济复苏奠定基础的第一步。修复和调整的过程还需时日。

China, despite your own manifest challenges as a developing country, you are in an enviably strong position. But in most economies, the recession is still powerful and dangerous. Business and households in the United States, as in many countries, are still experiencing the most challenging economic and financial pressures in decades.

中国作为一个发展中国家尽管有你们自己的明显挑战，但你们处在一个令人羡慕的强势地位。而在世界大多数经济体中，经济衰退仍然严峻而危险。美国与许多国家一样，企业和家庭正在经历几十年来挑战性的经济和财政压力。

The plant closures, and company restructurings that the recession is causing are painful, and this process is not yet over. The fallout from these events has been brutally indiscriminant, affecting those with little or no responsibility for the events that now buffet them, as well as on some who played key roles in bringing about our troubles.

The extent of the damage to financial systems entails significant risk that the supply of credit will be constrained for some time. The constraints on banks in many major economies will make it hard for them to compensate fully for the damage done to the basic machinery of the securitization markets, including the loss of confidence in credit ratings. After a long period where financial institutions took on too much risk, we still face the possibility that banks and investors may take too little risk, even as the underlying economic conditions start to improve.

金融系统的损害程度导致了重大的风险，以至信贷供应将会在一段时间内受到限制。许多主要经济体对银行的限制将使他们很难完全补偿基本的证券化市场机制所遭受的损害，包括对信贷评级丧失信心。在经历了漫长的时期金融机构承担太多风险后，我们仍然面临的可能是，即使根本经济条件开始改善，银行和投资者可能只愿承担太少风险。

And, after a long period of falling saving and substantial growth in household borrowing relative to GDP, consumer spending in the United States will be restrained for some time relative to what is typically the case in recoveries.

经过长期的相对国内生产总值的储蓄下降和家庭借贷大幅度增长，美国的消费者支出，相对于经济复苏时期来说，将在一段时间内受到限制。

These are necessary adjustments. They will entail a longer, slower process of recovery, with a very different pattern of future growth across countries than we have seen in the past several recoveries.

这些都是必要的调整。他们将需要更长的、较慢的复苏过程，在各国以一种不同以往的未来增长模式。