The central bank needs to tread carefully amid signs that its earlier policy easing has fanned property price rises that have triggered public anxiety.
That's probably why the PBOC has so far defied expectations for more aggressive moves since its last interest rate cut in July. Instead, it is opting to use reverse repos to inject short-term money into the banking system.
Housing prices, rebounded on a monthly basis for the second straight months in July, following eight consecutive months of declines, while annual inflation accelerated to 2 percent in August from a 30-month low of 1.8 percent in July.
"The key dilemma for policymakers is that inflation looks like it will pick up earlier than expected, while a growth recovery coming later than expected," said Yiping Huang, chief economist for emerging Asia at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.
"I think the central bank will probably do a little bit more (on easing), depending on how the economy is doing. Realistically, the economy is going to rebound but certainly not going to rebound significantly."
The PBOC may keep policy settings unchanged until the fourth quarter, when growth may stabilize or even recover due to the lagging impact of policy stimulus, according to government economist familiar with the policy-making process.
"We don't expect any major changes in macro-economic policy in the run up to the 18th Party Congress and the fundamental tone for monetary policy remains prudent," Wang Jun, senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a Beijing-based think-tank, told Reuters.
"Policymakers have drawn a lesson from the past and don't want to stimulate economic growth aggressively," he said, referring to concerns that too much stimulus could re-ignite inflationary pressures.
The 18th Communist Party Congress, at which China's next top leaders are likely to be unveiled, is set for October.
Under the banner of policy 'fine-tuning", the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July and lowered banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) three times since late 2011, freeing an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan for boosting loans.
"The chances of policy easing are slim in the near term, but we cannot rule out a cut in RRR or interest rates," said You Hongye, an economist at China Essence Securities in Beijing.
中文翻译：
不着急
分析师表示,只要就业市场保持稳定,北京*就不会太担心经济成长放缓.
四年前全球贸易接近停滞,数月内近2,000万中国人失业,随後中国推出大规模刺激计划.
但这次就业市场更具韧性.分析师指出,服务业扩张,降低了经济成长对脆弱的出口行业的依赖,并创造了大量就业.
虽然对人行采取行动的预期降温,但投资者转而关注中国可能出台更多财政刺激措施.政府现已加紧准备财政刺激手段.
发改委上周宣布,已批准基建项目的规模超过1,500亿美元.但分析师仍怀疑这不会给经济成长带来任何立竿见影的效果,因为这些项目仍需要时间来筹集资金和开始建设.
国务院总理温家宝周二表示,政府到7月底收支相抵还有1万亿元余额,历年结余的还有1千多亿元稳定调节基金.
温家宝还表示,中国经济增速仍然保持在年初预定的7.5%目标区间之内.
他还表示,今年前七个月新创造就业岗位810万个,较上年同期增加5%.这个数字是政府年初所设900万目标的90%.
"当前他们真的不着急(放宽政策).他们时刻做好准备,如果情况恶化,他们会做出响应,"荷兰国际集团亚洲研究主管Tim Condon说.
"经济表现不是太好,但也没有那麽差."
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