2015年在职GCT备考：英语阅读素材(2)

　　Predicting the timing of China's monetary policy moves can be a daunting task given the central bank does not hold regular policy meetings as its counterparts in the West, and it has a track record of surprising the market.

　　One, albeit slim possibility is that the China may opt to cut banks' reserve requirements or rates as part of a globally coordinated policy action to shore up the world economy, especially if the Federal Reserve launches a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3 after a two-day meeting ending on Thursday to spur the U.S. recovery.

　　China, the euro zone and Britain loosened monetary policy within less than an hour of each other in early July, signaling a growing level of alarm about the world economy. China's move was a surprise, though suggestions of any coordinated action were played down.

　　Unlike its counterparts in the West, the central bank still has plenty of room to cut borrowing costs. The benchmark one-year bank lending rate is at 6 percent while one-year deposit rate is at 3 percent, while the RRR level remains at 20 percent -- among the highest in the world.

　　Peng Wensheng, chief economist at CICC, still expects one or two cuts in RRR and another interest rates cut by year-end.

　　中文翻译：

　　意外行动?

　　预测中国何时调整货币政策,可谓一项艰巨的任务,因中国央行不像西方国家央行那样定期召开政策会议,而且过去的行动曾屡次让市场大感意外.

　　一种很小的可能性,就是中国或选择下调银行存款储备金率或利率,以此作为全球政策协作支撑世界经济的部分努力,特别是若美联储周四结束两日会议时祭出第三轮量化宽松(QE3)来助推美国复苏.

　　7月初,中国、欧元区和英国的央行短短数小时内相继放松货币政策,暗示其对全球经济的警戒级别提高.中国的行动令人意外,但联合行动的意味被淡化.

　　和西方央行不同,中国央行仍拥有下调借款成本的充裕空间.中国一年期存贷款利率分别为3%和6%,存款准备金率维持在20%--为全球者之一.

　　中国国际金融有限公司(CICC)首席经济学家彭文生仍预计,年底前降准一到两次,并再降息一次.